Hypergrowth follows up the steep back of the curve. In our experience, too many people who speak of disruption have not read a serious book or article on the subject. Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy mckinsey global institute were our experts in mobile internet technology. For automation of knowledge work, we received input from rickard carlsson, alex incecushman, alex kazaks, nathan marston, and chad wegner. This highly practical book offers organizations a distinct response to emerging technologies including blockchain bitcoin, artificial. A companys revenue and cost structures play a critical role in the way it evaluates proposed technological innovations. Music, movies, games, communication, and knowledge are everavailable on alwaysconnected devices. Adoption is relatively slow at the base of the s, until a tipping point is reached. The ebook and its associated technology have emerged as a disruptive technology over the past ten years. But until recently, hotels, taxi services, doctors and energy companies had little to fear from the information revolution. The fallacy of the scurve a closer look at the accepted evolutionary theory of technology reveals a lawed model that may also act as scurve.
The theory of disruptive innovation i presents some intriguing inconsistencies for. Disruptive technologies and their implications for economic. Christensen harvard university graduate school of business administration, boston, massachusetts 02 163 the technology scurve is a useful framework describing the substitution of new for old. Drawing on nearly a decade of research on thousands of companies from scores of industries around the world, nunes and breene show that too many leaders manage. The electronic book, or ebook, is a book that is read on a computer or other electronic device2. Nov 22, 2016 the six ds are a chain reaction of technological progression, a road map of rapid development that always leads to enormous upheaval and opportunity. It assists in determining the level of maturity of the industry product and where it is in relation to the innovators dilemma concept and the products adoption curve. This book is about the failure of companies to stay atop their industries when they. No company, regardless or size and market position, is immune to disruptive innovation.
It expands on the concept of disruptive technologies, a term he coined in a. Pdf the concept of disruptive innovation has gained considerable currency among practitioners despite. Disruptive innovation, a term of art coined by clayton christensen, describes a process by which a product or service takes root initially in simple applications at the bottom of a market and then relentlessly moves up market, eventually displacing established competitors. Ubers move to take on the taxi industry seems counterintuitive at first for students of disruptive innovation because, from the outside, it appears to be a march downmarket as opposed to up.
These deal with the performance path of a disruptive technology and its impact on. This framework, which operates alongside the bass model, is used to determine performance in regards to time and effort. The music industry, following some of the timeline of audio formats, is a. Generally, disruptive technologies look financially unattractive to. The concept of the s curve and adopter categorization by rogers 19622003 has been widely used and referenced.
After this point, performance improves at a decreasing rate until matu rity. The theory fits greatly to a foundational innovation that is currently in the news and i describe in detail in another post. Current cmos technology may presumably scale continuously in the next decade, down to 6 or 5 nm. A companys position on the innovation curve indicates how it thinks about, embraces, or adapts to change. One of the most famous concepts in innovation is the innovation scurve, the technology life cycle. Christian sandstrom holds a phd from chalmersuniversity of technology, sweden. Jan 05, 2016 it begins with an understanding of the s curve. When we look at technology cost curves, its important to know what the main driver of the improvement is. Movement up an s curve is incremental innovation while stepping down on a lower new s curve now, can lead to radical innovation, as the new s curve surpasses your existing s curve. The model goes through five stages based on the psychographic features of customers at each stage. From the worlds leading thinker on innovation and new york times bestselling author comes an unconventional book.
The challenge of forecasting disruptive technologies, s4 an overview of technology forecasting techniques, s4 attributes of an effective disruptive technology forecasting system, s6 benchmarking the persistent forecasting system, s7 steps to build a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technologies, s7 conclusion, s8 references, s8. Just like those technology disruptions flipped the architecture of information and brought abundant, cheap and participatory information, the clean. Nevertheless, the terms disruptive technology and disruptive innovation were seldom used before clayton christensen published the innovator s dilemma in 1997. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading the innovators dilemma. Disruptive technologies provides a clear roadmap to assess, respond to and problemsolve. Mar 22, 2015 disruptive innovation theory observes how new innovations create a new market and a new value network, which in turn disrupts an existing market. If you dont understand the s curve, you should not be investing in technology. Clay was named the worlds most influential business management thinker in 2011 and 20. The technology lifecycle tlc describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its vital life.
Similarly, the e book has the potential to disrupt the processes for the production, distribution and use of authorial texts, and is already in the process of doing so. New product development and major investments in research depend upon a. Strategy in the age of devastating innovation big bang. It expands on the concept of disruptive technologies, a term he coined in a 1995 article disruptive technologies. Tellis c hristensens 1997 thesis of disruptive tech nology has been highly praised and popular with managers. When new technologies cause great firms to fail management of innovation and change kindle edition by christensen, clayton m download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. The s curve of innovation is a robust framework that can be used to analyze various industries at their different stages and to explain their successes and failures. Rogers in 1962, the scurve is a graphic illustration of how disruptive ideas and products spread through cultures. The term disruptive technologies was first described in depth with this book by christensen. This presentation will introduce the concept oftechnology scurves and explain how it can be used.
This process has been proposed as the standard life cycle of innovations can be described using the. The innovators dilemma is promoting a continuous innovation process within any industry. Chapter 14 the electronic book as a disruptive technology. He writes and speaksabout disruptive innovation and technological change. A related issue is overuse of disruptive innovationdisruption as a synonym for. A disruption framework aalto universitys research and. Some technologies, such as steel, paper or cement manufacturing, have a long lifespan with minor variations in technology incorporated with time while in other cases, such as electronic or pharmaceutical products.
The model has a lot of empirical evidence and assisted. How, then, is the development of the ebook going to disrupt this process, if it is, indeed, a disruptive technology. Rogers in 1962, the s curve is a graphic illustration of how disruptive ideas and products spread through cultures. A disruptive innovation is an innovation that creates a new market and value network that will eventually disrupt an already existing market and replace. That is one of the prime contributions of chainlinks technology adoption model. Technology evolution follows a step function, not an s curve.
When new technologies cause great firms to fail, generally referred to as the innovators dilemma, first published in 1997, is the bestknown work of the harvard professor and businessman clayton christensen. Moore shows a model that dissects and represents the stages of adoption of hightech products. Mar 15, 2019 the innovators dilemma is promoting a continuous innovation process within any industry. The great digital illusion seduces leaders from some of the worlds biggest brands. The six ds are a chain reaction of technological progression, a road map of rapid development that always leads to enormous upheaval and opportunity. First used by in 1903 by gabriel tarde, who first plotted the sshaped diffusion curve. An intellectual history and directions for future research article pdf available in journal of management studies june 2018 with 7,078 reads how we measure reads. Why companies need to eat their children a comprehensive.
Furthermore, photonics, a technology that uses photons for communication, can be used to replace communication busses to enable a new form of inter and intrachip communication. But little has been said about what it takes to get there and what users are actually looking for before they join. This happens due to the vast technological changes that occur daily in todays society. This book offers the knowledge and tools to engage confidently with emerging technologies for better business. Its now the age of big bang disruption, where every business is a digital business. A broadbased disruptive technology can lead to the destruction of an old technology, a business model or business vitality, a community, or a countrys economy or security. Never blame technology for your failure, a brand must be one step. The s curve describes how supply, demand and profit work in a fastgrowing market. Marketing and selling disruptive products to mainstream customer. Disruptive technologies outlines the steps businesses can take to engage with emerging technologies today in order to serve the consumer of tomorrow.
Disruptive innovation, as coined by clayton christenson the innovators dilemma, refers to an innovation that creates a new market by applying a different set of values, and which ultimately and unexpectedly overtakes an existing market. Strategy in the age of devastating innovation big bang disruption. Ebooks were invented in 1971 with michael harts project. However, scaling cmos technology leads to steadily increasing. The concept of the scurve and adopter categorization by rogers 19622003 has been widely used and referenced. Peter diamandis and steven kotler, bold we live in incredible times. To explain the impact of the ebook phenomenon we use winstons theory of. The invention of movable type was an instance of a disruptive technology. As a potential threat sthomond, herzberg and lettice 2003 investigate some ways that companies do this. This is a technologybased disruption reminiscent of how the cell phone, internet, and personal computer swept away industries such as landline telephony, publishing, and mainframe computers. Diffusion of innovations theory, pioneered by everett rogers, posits that people have different levels of readiness for adopting new innovations and that the.
For example, when online ordering became popular, it disrupted many conventional brickandmortar retail businesses as. By using a quicktomaster evaluation and decisionmaking framework structured around the key dimensions of technology, behaviour and data tbd. However, according to christensen, who coined the term in his 1997 book, the innovators dilemma, the ridehailing app isnt an example of true disruptive innovation. Nevertheless, the terms disruptive technology and disruptive innovation were seldom used before clayton christensen published the innovators dilemma in 1997. When new technologies cause great firms to fail management of. We call this line the new products reservation price curve. May 08, 2017 digital disruption scurve the digital disruption scurve from mckinsey below clearly illustrates what established companies must understand and accept, before they are likely to undertake legitimate transformation and shake off the great digital illusion they might be under right now. The music industry, following some of the timeline of audio formats, is a great example. Disruptive technologies and their implications for. Jun 20, 2016 ubers move to take on the taxi industry seems counterintuitive at first for students of disruptive innovation because, from the outside, it appears to be a march downmarket as opposed to up.
Report on disruptive technologies for years 20202030. This is a technology based disruption reminiscent of how the cell phone, internet, and personal computer swept away industries such as landline telephony, publishing, and mainframe computers. The theory of disruptive innovation, introduced in these pages in 1995, has proved to be a powerful way of thinking about innovationdriven growth. Christensen 1997 notes that the products of a disruptive technology tend to be simpler and cheaper than the established equivalent, they offer lower marginal profits and emerge initially in emerging or. Disruptive innovation theory observes how new innovations create a new market and a new value network, which in turn disrupts an existing market. The aim of this paper is to discuss some of the consequences of this development, based on the work of the ebooks in sweden research project. With the s curve growing shorter within the technology adoption life cycle, consumers are integrating technology into their lives with less hesitation. The technology adoption life cycle typically occurs in an s curve, as modelled in diffusion of innovations theory. For automation of knowledge work, we received input from rickard carlsson, alex incecushman, alex. The s curves of radical and incremental innovation. In the third phase, we used a manual process to determine which. Jumping the scurve, paul nunes and tim breene leaders of accenture s high performance business research program reveal how the best companies get to the top and stay there. Harvard business school professor clayton christensen is the architect of and the worlds foremost authority on disruptive innovation. Swansons law postulates that solar pv costs tend to fall by about 20% for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume.
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